Although the first mountain stage yesterday wasn't decisive it has clarified who are the leading contenders. A number of outside bets like Klöden, Gesink and Tony Martin have been eliminated from contention.
Gilbert did a great ride today but showed his limits in the high mountains when the going gets really tough. He remains a threat and could quite possibly pick up points tomorrow at Lourdes. Depends how much today took out of him. Cavendish should be able to pick up more intermediate points today.
Today's stage is from Pau to Lourdes. Quite short at 152.5 kilometres it isn't esepcially difficult with one 3rd cat and a 4th cat before the major climb of the day the Col d'Aubisque. Although it is hors categorie it is 40k from the finish in Lourdes so unlikely to play a part in the overall race. I fancy that Thomas Voeckler, who did a great ride yesterday, will remain in Yellow today – he has a lead of 1.49 on Frank Schleck. I think, however, that he is likely to lose the jersey on Saturday.