#TDF13: Kittel wins Stage 1 – a lottery indeed!

As I feared the much anticipated big sprint didn't happen yesterday due to a big crash in the peloton just before the three kilometre mark. This took out Mark Cavendish as the person who went down first was just behind Mark, Peter Sagan was also brought down and suffered some injuries but fortunately nothing major. André Griepel missed the crash but soon after had a puncture, which took him out of the running. This left Marcel Kittel in a great position, which he took convincingly winning his first ever Tour de France stage. It will be surprising if this proves to be his last.

There was confusion over the Orica-GreenEdge bus getting stuck under a banner at the finish line. Initially the finish line was moved to three kilometres from the original line and then when they eventually got the bus clear the finish was moved back to its intended place. A nightmare for the organisers. Cavendish blamed the crashes on the confusion and concern in the peloton over where the finish would actually be. Certainly this has continued Mark's running of bad luck in the Tour getting caught up in crashes in stages where he has a good chance of winning. This happened to him twice in last year's Tour. 

Today's stage across the island from Bastia to Ajaccio is decidedly hilly with three - 3rd Category climbs and a 2nd Category. After the 2nd Category climb there is 65 kilometres to the finish, so it will be interesting to see if any of the sprinters manage to get back on before the finish, although the last climb (3rd Cat) is only 12 kilometres from the finish. Peter Sagan ought to be a good bet for this stage but will have to see what effect yesterday's tumble will have had. 

Unfortunately Tony Martin had a bad crash yesterday. Apparently he is starting today, which may not be wise. 

List of all time stage winners now nearly complete: 1903-1975 and 1981-2013.   

2013 Tour de France ..... and the winner will be ...?

Will it be Froome and Team Sky?

Chris Froome last year's runner up to Bradley Wiggins (now Sir Brad) is the clear favourite.

He has had an impressive first half of the season winning The Tour of Oman, the Tour of Romandie and most recently the Critérium du Dauphiné. Froome has only been beaten by Vincenzo Nibali in very cold conditions in the Tireno-Adriatico.  Nibali, clear winner of the Giro d'Italia and perhaps potential the biggest threat to Froome, will not be riding the Tour this year. Froome is a great all rounder – fine climber and excellent time triallist.

Of the leading contenders Froome has shown that he is the strongest time trialler. Although I expect that Tony Martin will win the first time trial he is not a contender for overall victory. Froome might well take the hilly 17th stage time trial in the Alps that has two category 2 climbs.

Alberto Contador is the other favourite. However, he was comfortably beaten by Froome in the Dauphiné. Contador appears to have lost some of that killer acceleration that he had previously in the 2009 Tour for example. Certainly he has lost his time trialling ability - this has been evident since 2011 both in the Dauphiné and the Tour that year. In the crucial final time trial that year from Bordeaux to Pauillac, Andy Schleck threatened for a time to take Tour victory from Contador, who in the end put enough seconds into Schleck to hold on. But it wasn't an impressive performance. In the event Contador was later disqualified and stripped of his victory as he failed a doping control with Schleck being declared the winner. Then this year in the Dauphiné Contador rode a stinker of a time trial. Fortunately for Contador there are 65km of individual time trialling this year compared to 110 last year.

It is possible, of course, that Contador will hit peak condition for the Tour. Impressive form in the Dauphiné is not necessarily replicated in the Tour as Iban Mayo and Lance Armstrong showed in 2004, when Mayo comfortably beat Armstrong on a time trial up Mont Ventoux but then disappointed in the Tour. In those days, of course, it may have been a question of ensuring that Armstrong's EPO treatment was designed to deliver him in top form for the Tour, and Mayo had misjudged his! Last year Wiggins won the Dauphiné and then went on to win the Tour, so perhaps with today’s cleaner racing the Dauphiné is a better guide to Tour form than it was previously.

Some of the other contenders include Cadel Evans, who is a threat but I think at 36 is more likely to be a contender for a podium place rather than overall victory. His young team mate Tejay Van Garderen could be a winner, although it depends upon whether he has to support Evans rather than go for victory himself.

Ryder Hesjedal, the 2012 winner of the Giro, has had a difficult lead up to the Tour having to abandon both the Giro and the Tour of Switzerland. Jurgen Van den Broeck and Columbian Nairo Quintana should be discounted. Robert Gesink has frequently been cited as a potential Grand Tour winner but has yet to produce the goods when it matters. It will be a major surprise if Andy Schleck does more than finish in the top ten – that already would be a triumph.

Stages 6 and 7 in the Pyrenees should be the first real indicator of who are actually the leading contenders this year. 

2013 Tour de France – just a week to go!

Le Tour@Pauillac 2010

This time next week the 100th edition of Le Tour de France will be underway. For the first time ever the Tour starts in Corsica, where it spends the first three days before moving to Nice for the short 25 kilometre time trial.

There is a good chance that next Saturday evening will see Mark Cavendish in Yellow after winning the sprint for the first stage from Porto Vecchio north for 213 kms to Bastia. The stage is very flat and must be virtually certain to end in a bunch sprint. Mark will be determined to win the stage and wear the leader's Yellow Jersey for the first time in his career. If he succeeds he will have worn the leader's jersey in the three major Tours. Winning in Bastia would take his all time T de F stage wins to 24 – only 10 behind the legendary Eddy Merckx, the longtime holder of the most stage wins. Currently Mark needs just five more stage wins before he matches second placed Bernard Hainault.     

When Cav sets his sights on a win he normally makes it. However, the first stage of the Tour can be very nervous with the likelihood of crashes, so good positioning – certainly – and luck – possibly – may well play their part. At this year's Giro d'Italia Mark won five stages plus the Red Points Jersey, so he is just as fast as ever. But for the Tour the competition in the sprints is going to be intense. Among Mark challengers will be Tyler Farrar, Marcel Kittel, John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Nacer Bouhanni, Matthew Goss, Edvard Boassen Hagen and André Griepel. 

Can't wait for the off! Further Tour posts during this week.    

Follow the Tour on Steephill-TV also the Tour's official site.   

All time stage winners now complete from 1903 to 1975 plus most of the recent winners.