2012 Tour de France: Epernay to Metz – final big sprint before mountains?

Late autumn in the vineyards of Champagne 

Today's 207.5K stage from Epernay to Metz looks likely to be a repeat of yesterday – a procession across north-east France with the racing starting in earnest around 30K from the finish. Most likely scenario is for a small break to go ahead early and stay out most of the day, while the overall favourites conserve their energies for the two semi-mountain stages to come on Saturday (Vosges) and Sunday (Jura). Possible light showers are forecast for today.

From the race profile the finish looks to be dead flat, unlike yesterday's finish in Saint-Quentin that had a rise at the end. There is a tight corner just before the 2K mark and then another less tight at the start of the final straight  – about 800 metres (?) from the finish.

As this is the last flat stage before the race finishes at Cap d'Agde on 14th July the sprinters may well be keen to catch the breakaways with more time to spare than yesterday when the last man wasn't caught until within the last 500 metres.

Will André Griepel get his third stage win in a row or will it be Mark Cavendish, who will have had another day to get over Wednesday's crash, or someone else – Matt Goss? Whatever, let's hope that everyone including Tyler Farrar stays upright today.    

2012 Tour de France goes to the seaside

Today the 2012 Tour will take a 100K jaunt along the seaside from Le Tréport to Fécamp passing through Dieppe, although there won't be much time to relax with bucket and spade as the route will be relatively lumpy with a succession of chalk hills to climb and descend. At Frécamp the riders head inland for Rouen for a very likely bunch sprint.

There is a total of 214K today from Abbeville to Rouen with four 4th Category climbs – the last one comes at 143K – just after the intermediate sprint in Fécamp. The forecast looks benign with sunshine and cloud, temperatures in the early 20s and a light wind blowing off the land. The riders had better make the most of this as tomorrow's forecast is for heavy, local thundery showers with gusts up to 65 k/h.  

There will be the usual contenders for the sprint with the probable exception of Marcel Kittel who has been suffering at the rear of the race over the last couple of days. Mark Cavendish is likely to have to go freelance again today, especially as Sky lost one of their riders – Sivtsov – yesterday. Cav, however, has shown on a number of occasions that he can win without a train to help him so he might today move up to 22 stages wins equal with sprinter André Darrigade. Doubtless André Griepel will be determined not to let this happen! Tyler Farrar will hope he can repeat his Independence Day win of last year on this 4th July.

It remains to be seen whether the redoubtable Michael Morkov, leader of the Mountains Jersey, will manage to get into a breakaway today for the fourth successive day to claim a few more climbing points. If he does it will be a surprise as he looked pretty well cooked towards the end of yesterday's stage.  

I doubt if there will be any change overall. I would expect Cancellara to keep Yellow until the race gets to the Vosges on Saturday as the stages on Thursday and Friday are relatively flat. 

15.45: Update: forecasters have got it wrong, rain forecast for later today has arrived with the peloton going through showers. Sunshine and showers – hope it is dry for the finish.     

2012 Tour de France: Stage 2: Visé - Tournai: a must for the sprinters

2010: Tour banner in Pauillac 

Today the Tour traverses much of Belgium heading west from Visé to Tournai towards France. Apart from a Category 4 climb at 82 kilometres, it is a flat stage (207 km) that the sprinters will be determined should end in a bunch sprint as tomorrow's lumpy finish around the hills of Boulogne certainly won't suit the pure sprinters. 

In previous years I would have had Mark Cavendish as the big favourite for such stage. However, he currently appears not to be as fast as previously having lost a little weight in preparation for the Olympics. He recently won the Ster ZLM Toer GP Jan van Heeswijk his first overall stage race win but didn't win any of the individual stages. Also he is no longer in a team that is dedicated to him as HTTC was. Now Sky's priority must be Bradley Wiggins winning the race overall. Equally Mark has won stages without the assistance of a train in the past through his speed, positioning and bike handling. 

If not Cavendish then there are a number of candidates including André Griepel, Tyler Farrar, Matthew Goss, Mark Renshaw (previously Mark Cavendish's brilliant lead out man), yesterday's winner Peter Sagan and Marcel Kittel. 

The forecast for Tournai this afternoon is cloudy and around 20˚C when the race arrives. 

The good news is that Tony Martin has not been forced to abandon the Tour with a broken collarbone. Instead he has broken his wrist and it is reported that he will try to continue at least until Stage 9 – the first time trial stage on Monday 9th July. A tough call as any stage with a broken wrist will be difficult and painful but tomorrow's tough finish and the mountain stages 7 in the Vosges and 8 in the Jura before the time trial will surely be very difficult. Martin's team mate Jérôme Pineau will also start after being brought down 25 km from yesterday's finish by an amateur photographer, who very foolishly stepped on to the road to get a pic. Sadly far from the first time this has happened! 

Overall, provided there aren't any big crashes that split the field and the favourites stay out of trouble, there shouldn't be any change with Cancellara keeping the Yellow Jersey. Certainly hoping that today will be crash free!