2012 Tour de France: one last big test for Wiggins

Today's stage is short and brutal – the sting in the tail of the mountain stages. The 143.5K course describes a big arc around Bagnères de Luchon with five categorised climbs before finishing at the ski station of Peyragudes. This will be last time that Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome can be put under pressure. After yesterday's stage with the collapse of Cadel Evans, only Vincenzo Nibali can realistically challenge Wiggins and Froome and to date he hasn't been able to take a single second out of them despite several attacks. 

It was clear yesterday that Nibali, Wiggins and Froome are the strongest in this year's race as the other riders left in the Yellow Jersey group were instantly blown away once Nibali attacked and the two Sky riders followed.

The forecast for Bagnères de Luchon is cooler than yesterday. Sky will seek to control the race as usual. Presumably a break will be allowed to get away. I suspect that the leading contenders won't start considering racing until the HC Port de Bales. They may even wait until the climb to Peyragudes, which includes climbing the Peyresourde – the side they descended yesterday. Thomas Voeckler will want to defend his slim four point lead in the Mountains  Jersey. Whether he will have the legs for another long attack is another matter. Equally does his principal rival – Fredrik Kessiakoff – have anything left?

Today could be a procession or there might be some exciting action towards the end.
 

2012 Tour de France: Great stage victory for Thomas Voeckler + Bradley Wiggins closes in on Victory

Thomas Voeckler won today's classic stage in the Pyrénées in the grand tradition cresting all of the four climbs in first place taking over the Mountains Jersey and then riding away from his breakaway companion Brice Feillu on the last climb – the Peyresourde. Although Chris Anker Sorensen took up the chase he was unable to catch Voeckler, who finished 1.40 ahead. Voeckler showed all his spirit of adventure and gutsy determination and may well now keep the Mountains Jersey to Paris, even though he has a lead of only 4 points.  

In terms of the overall classification the race was rather a procession led by Sky until the climb of the Col d'Aspin when an acceleration by Ivan Basso put Cadel Evans and others in difficulty. Although Evans managed to get back to the Yellow Jersey Group before the start of the last climb, as soon as the road went up again he was in difficulty again and started to lose a lot of time. By the time Evans reached Bagnères de Luchon he had lost 4.47 minutes to Wiggins, Froome and Nibali. Although he attacked three times on the Peyresourde, Vincenzo Nibali was unable to break either Bradley Wiggins or Chris Froome and together the three took time out of all of their rivals – in particular 58 seconds to Jurgen Van den Broeck.  

Although there is one more day in the Pyrénées it looks like today has decided the top three of the podium in Paris – barring accidents of course. Bradley Wiggins still has a lead of 2.05 over Froome and 2.23 over Nibali.  Van den Broeck is now 5.46 back, Haimar Zubeldia on 7.13, Van Garderen on 7.55 and Cadel Evans now back in 7th place on 8.06. 

Details of race standings here.          

2012 Tour de France: Gutsy Thomas Voeckler gives France 2nd stage victory

After suffering badly from a knee problem during the first week of the Tour, Thomas Voeckler showed what a battler he is by winning the first mountain stage today. Bradley Wiggins despite a number of attacks, especially on the descents, had a relatively comfortable day and can tick this off as another stage done and a step closer to Paris. Tomorrow's short and brutal stage in the Alps is likely to prove a big test. 

Voeckler went away with the big escape of the day with 25 riders. At least there were until the big climb of the day – the Col du Grand Colombier – when the group was soon whittled down to four riders including Voeckler and Michele Scarponi, the best placed rider overall. Just before the finish the four became five when Jens Voigt caught them. A couple of kilometres from the finish it looked like Dries Devenyns was going to win, following an attack, but he died on the uphill finish. Voeckler caught, passed him and held off Voigt and Scarponi for a famous victory.

The much vaunted Col du Grand Colombier proved to be less selective than thought for the overall favourites. Perhaps at 43K away, it was just too far from the finish. Vincenzo Nibali gained about a minute on the descent from Bradley Wiggins and the other leaders but was unable to hold onto this on the last climb – Le Col du Richemond. Jurgen Van den Broeck attacked right at the top of this climb, gained on the descent and finished 34 seconds ahead of Wiggins. This means he has cut his deficit to 4.48. Tejay Van Garderen lost a little bit of time and slipped from 8th to 10th. Otherwise there was no change on the times of the top 10.

Cadel Evans tried and failed to take some seconds from Bradley Wiggins in the final uphill kilometre. So far Wiggins and Sky have proved to be a match for Evans. 

Not only did Thomas Voeckler take the stage win but he also took over the Mountains Jersey. Whether he will still hold it after tomorrow's mountainous stage will be another matter!

Overall race standings here. 

   

2011 Tour de France: 18th stage Schlecks finally dare, 19th stage short but very tough

The 18th stage from Pinerolo to the Col du Galibier was certainly brutally tough. Andy Schleck finally went for it and produced a great ride to win the stage from an attack 60km from the finish to move him to just 15 seconds away from taking the Yellow Jersey. Again Thomas Voeckler rode well surprising me once more as I predicted yesterday that he would lose it. I'll stop making predictions!

Cadel Evans also did a great ride up the Galibier to limit the lose of time to Andy Schleck and incidentally ensured that Voeckler remained in Yellow. Evans is now at 1.12 behind with Frank Schleck at 1.08. These four are now well over two minutes clear of Damiano Cunego and Ivan Basso both on 3.46. The big losers of the day were the two Spaniards – Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez. Both blew up at the top of the Galibier and lost a lot of time. Alberto is now 4.44 down and Sanchez at 5.20.

The pity for Evans was that the chasing bunch wasn't able to rise consistently to reduce the gap between them and Andy Schleck. Indeed the gap went out on the climb up the Col du Lautaret as no one was really prepared to take up the chase. It wasn't until right at the top that Cadel opted to really go for it that the gap started to come down but without assistance it was impossible to bring it right down. Evans reduced the gap by about two and half minutes but still finished 2.15 behind Andy.

More than half the field finished outside the time limit including Mark Cavendish. The Tour organisers decided to keep all the riders in the race but docked Mark 20 points from his Green Jersey total, so he is now only 15 points ahead of Rojas who just managed to cross the finishing line in time.

Stage 19: Mondane to L'Alpe d'Huez 109.5km

This is a very short but again brutally tough stage. Back over the Galibier but this time going up the harder northern side and heading down to Bourg d'Oisans and the famous L'Alpe d'Huez with its 21 steep corners. The Schlecks will want to take further time out of Cadel Evans. I'm sure Thomas Voeckler would love to hold on to Yellow at the end of this stage. Can Contador find the legs to attack on the Alpe and regain time?

If the favourites race hard all the way it is going to be very difficult for many riders to make the cut as the stage is so short. Mark Cavendish has to beat the time limit otherwise he will be in real trouble.

The Alpe is an amazing place to watch the Tour. We went there once in 1986 and saw Bernard Hainault and Greg Lemond ride up together. We had hoped to see Robert Millar doing well but he had an off day and was well down.

2011 Tour de France: 17th stage Norway win again 18th: Pinerolo to Col du Galibier

Yesterday's excursion into Italy saw another Norwegian victory. This time for Edvald Boassen Hagen, who was second yesterday to his countryman Thor Hushovd. Boassen Hagen attacked his breakaway companions on the last climb of the day and handled the difficult descent well to give himself a comfortable victory in Pinerolo. The narrow climb featured further attacks by Alberto Contador but he was unable to gain time on his principal rivals – Evans and the Schlecks. Again Contador linked up with fellow Spaniard Samuel Sánchez.

Thomas Voeckler's lead was again nibbled away by Evans, Sanchez and Contador when he made an unexpected diversion into someone's driveway on one of the final descent's tight corners losing a few precious seconds. Evans and the others gained another 27 seconds, so Cadel is now 1.18 sec behind with Frank Schleck four seconds behind Evans. Andy Schleck is at 2.36, Samuel Sanchez at 2.59 and Alberto Contador at 3.15. Ivan Basso came in at the same time as Voeckler, so he slipped a place in overall ranking as Daniello Cunego moved above him.

In the Green Points competition Mark Cavendish took the sole point left at the intermediate sprint after the 14-man breakaway had picked up the rest.

Stage 18

Today's stage from Pinerolo to the top of the Col du Galibier (200.5k) is brutishly tough featuring three hors categorie climbs – Col Agnel (2744m), Col d'Izoard (2360m) and the Col du Galibier (2645m). The stage celebrates 100 years of the Tour passing through the Alps, although I'm not sure the riders will see this stage as a celebration!

This ought to be one of the decisive stages of the Tour. I'll be surprised if Thomas Voeckler manages to hold on to Yellow but he has surprised me and many others on previous stages. However this 18th stage is extraordinarily tough with a significant time spent at over 2000 metres. The leading contenders will have to attack Cadel Evans, who is best placed and generally is a good time triallist. I'm sure we can count on further attacks from Alberto, although I don't expect the action to come on the Agnel – the first col. The leaders won't want to put many of their teammates in danger of finishing outside the time limit.

The day's intermediate sprint is at 45.5k before the climbs so the points will either be taken by a breakaway or, if the bunch is all together, Mark Cavendish will have an opportunity to gain further points.

2011 Tour de France: at last fireworks on Stage 16 and preview of Stage 17: Gap to Pinerolo

Yesterday the leading contenders finally produced fireworks rather than damp squibs. It was Alberto Contador who set things off early on the only categorised climb of the day – the Col de Manse (2nd Cat). Unlike Andy Schleck's tentative forays on the Plateau de Beille, Alberto put in a series of more sustained attacks and duly got his reward. Only Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez were able to  stay with him. The Schlecks were some 30 seconds down by the top of the climb.

Worst was to come on the descent as Andy Schleck lost further time ending 66 seconds behind Cadel Evans who dropped Contador and Sanchez on the descent and gained three seconds on them at the line. Voeckler held onto his Yellow Jersey comfortably although he lost time on this leading trio. Obviously Evans was the biggest gainer of the day, although Alberto showed that his knee must now be better and that he is ready to attack.

The Schlecks, in particular Andy, were the biggest losers compounded by Andy's winge about descents being dangerous. By their comments after the stage both brothers reinforced the impression that they hate going downhill. They look to be paying for their timidity in the Pyrénées.   

Although Mark Cavendish didn't pick up any more points, it was a good day for him holding onto his Green Jersey, coming in just seven places behind Andy Schleck and seeing his rivals just pick up a few points: Rojas 3 and Gilbert 2.   

17th Stage: Gap to Pinerolo
Today's mountain stage takes the riders into Italy (179k) over two 3rd cat, two 2nd cat and Sestrières – 1st cat. There is a lot of descending in the final part of the stage, so the Schlecks could again be under threat. Will Contador again attack? He will want to try to gain time on Evans if he can.

The intermediate sprint comes shortly after the first climb of the day – the Côte de Sainte-Marguerite, which is short (2.8K) but quite steep (7.4%), so unless there is a big breakaway Cav ought to be able to pick up a few more points here. Being a mountain stage there are only 20 points available to the winner of the stage.

Leading overall standings after 16th stage

1st: Thomas Voeckler
2nd Cadel Evans:   + 1.45
3rd: Frank Schleck: + 1.49
4th: Andy Schleck: + 3.03
5th: Samuel Sanchez: + 3.26
6th: Alberto Contador: + 3.42
7th: Ivan Basso: + 3.49
8th: Damiano Cunego: + 4.01

2011 Tour de France: Stage 13: Hushvod wins in Lourdes + Stage 14: the showdown

Yesterday saw a remarkable win by the big Norwegian rider Thor Hushvod on a day when the overall favourites bided their time in an intermediate mountain stage. Thor managed to climb up over the hors category Col d'Aubisque in third place. Losing only a fraction over two minutes to his fellow escapee – Jeremy Roy. Possibly tired after being the escape the day before over the Tourmalet, Roy was caught easily within the last two kilometres. Roy did have the consolation of taking the Polka Dot Jersey – best climber.

No change to the overall standings although Philippe Gilbert underlined his abilities as an all round rider by moving up to 9th place overall – 4.35 mins behind Thomas Voeckler but less than three behind Frank Schleck. In the Green Jersey both Rojas and Gilbert nibbled at Cavendish's lead. Cav is currently on 264 points, Rojas has 251 and Gilbert 240. Mark and HTC were too casual over the intermediate sprint with Mark losing out to Rojas. Then as both Rojas and Gilbert are better climbers they picked up a few additional points at the finish. Fortunately mountain stages carry fewer points at the finish so Cav didn't lose too much. However, his Green Jersey could be under threat from Rojas today as the intermediate sprint (20 points for first place) comes after the first mountain climb – the 2nd category Col de Portet d'Aspet, which is short but steep – 4.3k at 9.7%.

Today's stage – 168.5 kilometres from Saint Gaudens to the Plateau de Beille – is crucial for the overall favourites. There are six climbs starting with the 2nd category d'Aspet, then Col de la Core (1st), Col de Latrape (2nd), Col d'Agnes (1) and Port de Lers (3) before the final showdown to the finish on the top of the Plateau de Beille (H) 15.8k at 7.9%. I expect that there will be a gradual attrition over the earlier climbs before the favourites fight it out on the climb to Beille. Hopefully the attacks will start earlier than they did at Luz Ardidenon on Thursday, so that some significant time gaps open up.

Can the Schlecks take time from Evans? Will Contador attack and recover some time? What of Basso and Cunego? Although leader Thomas Voeckler and his Europacar team will fight hard to hold on to Yellow, I can't see it happening. Whatever, it has been great to see Voeckler first take Yellow and ride so well to keep hold of it.

2011 Tour de France: thoughts on Stage 12 and preview of Stage 13: Pau to Lourdes

Although the first mountain stage yesterday wasn't decisive it has clarified who are the leading contenders. A number of outside bets like Klöden, Gesink and Tony Martin have been eliminated from contention.   

At the top of Luz-Ardiden the number of contenders for overall victory is now down to seven max: Andy and Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, Damiano Cunego, Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez. Although it would be dangerous to discount Alberto Contador I think he and Sánchez are now outside bets. I believe we saw a tipping point when Alberto couldn't respond at the end to the attacks – he lost his aura of invincibility which even during last year's Tour was under question. It will be very interesting to see what happens on Saturday with the climb to the Plateau de Beille. There has been little discussion so far of Ivan Basso but he looked strong yesterday. He won last year's Tour of Italy, which was extraordinarily tough, and he is a good time trialist.

Good day for Mark Cavendish who increased his lead over Rojas by 2 points and over Gilbert by 6. Mark and HTC appear now to have sorted the sprints with Mark picking up maximum points after the bunch and his HTC team soaking up a number of the other points available – Mark Renshaw swallowed 8 points, so denying an additional one to Rojas. Looks like it is now only the teams of Mark C, Rojas and Gilbert who contest the intermediate sprints. Cavendish now has 260 points, Rojas 242 and Gilbert 234.

Gilbert did a great ride today but showed his limits in the high mountains when the going gets really tough. He remains a threat and could quite possibly pick up points tomorrow at Lourdes. Depends how much today took out of him. Cavendish should be able to pick up more intermediate points today.

Today's stage is from Pau to Lourdes. Quite short at 152.5 kilometres it isn't esepcially difficult with one 3rd cat and a 4th cat before the major climb of the day the Col d'Aubisque. Although it is hors categorie it is 40k from the finish in Lourdes so unlikely to play a part in the overall race. I fancy that Thomas Voeckler, who did a great ride yesterday, will remain in Yellow today – he has a lead of 1.49 on Frank Schleck. I think, however, that he is likely to lose the jersey on Saturday.    

2011 Tour de France: Stage 10: Aurillac to Carmaux

Today it is a short (158 kilometres) but lumpy stage in Cantal and the Aveyron from Aurillac to Carmaux. There are three classified climbs – two 3rd category and two 4th – so no major difficulties but another day when it is up and down with very little on the flat. The forecast is a hotter than for the last two stages – 28-30˚C so warm but not scorching.

It will be a big surprise if Thomas Voeckler loses his Yellow Jersey today. Only a crash is likely to make it happen. I expect him to hold on to Yellow at least until Thursday (Bastille Day) when the race enters the Pyrénées. Although Voeckler may not lose it on the first day there I will be very surprised if he manages to hang on right through the Pyrénées.

Despite the lumpy course today's stage might end up as a sprint and if it does Mark Cavendish will have a good chance to notch up stage win number 18. The sprinters will be keen to hold the race together as there are not many opportunities for a bunch finish remaining in this year's Tour. The shortness of the stage may make it difficult to control any breakaway.

I expect Philippe Gilbert to to gain further points today, although his lead over Cavendish may be less at the end of today.