Nairo Quintana 2nd, Alejandro Valverde 3rd
Although both André Griepel and Mark Cavendish both have weakened lead out teams, I still expect it will be between these two for the victory. Although Cav has lost Mark Renshaw, his lead out man, Mark is adept at going freestyle and knows the finish well having won here four times. Furthermore he has won here before without Renshaw. Peter Sagan will be up there but it would be a major surprise if he manages to win in Paris.