2017 Tour de France: Démare wins, Cav and Sagan out. Preview of Stage 5

Having shown good form on Stages 2 and 3 Arnaud Démare duly won his first Tour de France stage in Vittel. Unfortunately his victory was overshadowed by the serious crash involving Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan. From the footage Sagan veers across the road to get on Démare's wheel taking Cav over towards the barrier. Then Sagan's elbow is raised. Whether his elbow actually connected with Cav is now hotly debated or whether Cav was now so close the barrier he was crashing anyway.

Whatever – the result is that Cav is out of the Tour with a broken shoulder blade and Sagan has been disqualified and thrown off the Tour. Initially the commissaires penalised Sagan by docking time and Green Jersey points before deciding to disqualify him, which has now caused a huge controversy. 

It is a great shame that the 2017 Tour has now lost two of its biggest stars.It has also blown the Green jersey competition wide open. 

Although involved in another crash within the last kilometre Geraint Thomas remains in Yellow. This crash held up Marcel Kittel. 

Stage 5 Vittel to La Planche des Belles Filles 160.5 kms

The final climb – last part is 20%

After the opening Time Trial this stage, which finishes is the first real test for the overall contenders. La Planche des Belles Filles was first used in 2012 and then again in 2014, so to feature three times in the last five years shows it has rapidly become a favourite. In 2012 Chris Froome won the stage and Bradley Wiggins took the Yellow Jersey and never lost it. The same thing happened in 2014 when Vincenzo Nibali won here and kept the Yellow jersey all the way to Paris. 

I fancy that either Geraint Thomas or Chris Froome will be in Yellow tonight unless a breakaway is allowed to stay away. If other overall contenders want to shake up Sky it would make sense as well as making the race more exciting if they started attacking well before the start of La Planche. It will be interesting to see how Richie Porte goes today – will he put in a big attack? Equally the steepness of the climb should suit Nairo Quintana, so will be an indication whether he has recovered from the Giro. Although time gaps are unlikely to be very big, I think we may well see Alberto Contador lose some time today.

Guillaume Van Keirsbulck was the sole breakaway ride of the day – riding almost the whole stage on his own not getting caught until just over 10 kms to go.

2017 Tour de France; Sagan wins Stage 3; Stage 4 another snoozefest preview

 Stage 3: top 10
Peter Sagan wins

Stage 3 Overall 

Geraint Thomas retains the Yellow Jersey

Despite pulling a foot out of his pedal within sight of the line Peter Sagan won the gallop up the Côte des Religieuses closely chased by Michael Matthews, Dan Martin and Greg van Avermaet. This brings Peter Sagan's tally of Tour stage wins is now up to eight.

As I suspected the Côte proved to be too steep for the pure sprinters with the exception of Arnaud Demarre, who came in with most of the overall contenders at two seconds down. Only Simon Yates dropped time on his overall rivals coming in 10 seconds down so losing 8 seconds on Thomas, Froome, Quintana etc.

Geraint Thomas retained the Yellow Jersey with Chris Froome now in second as the other riders in front of him have dropped down the order. In contrast Dan Martin picked six seconds on his overall rivals. 

Unfortunately there was little to get excited about this stage. The breakaway was established quite early. Within the break there was a bit of a tussle of the King of the Mountains, which Tour debutant Nathan Brown won. The break rarely got than an advantage of two minutes. Another debutant Lilian Calmejane was the last breakaway to be caught and certainly impressed.   

It was only in the last 20 kilometres of the race that things really came exciting, although it had started to get stressful for the riders before that. 

Stage 4 Preview: Mondorf-les-Bains to Vittel 207.5 kms 

This I fear will be another long stage snoozefest until the last 20 kms or so when the sprinters' teams start jousting for position. This is a largely flat stage with one Category 4 climb about 40 kms from the finish. I expect an early break to get away only to be swallowed up by the peloton towards the end of the stage.

The finish is slightly uphill but not enough to trouble the sprinters, though it may give a slight advantage to Sagan. Otherwise it is the usual sprinters who are favourite to take the win – Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Demarre, who is going well, André Griepel and possibly Mark Cavendish, who seems to be going well despite his illness this year.         

2017 Tour de France: Geraint Thomas wins, Valverde crashes out + Stage 2 preview

Top 20 after Stage 1

 

Stage 2: Düsseldorf to Liège

Geraint Thomas (Sky) was a popular but surprise winner yesterday winning not just taking his first ever Tour de France stage but the Yellow Jersey. This ten years on from Thomas' first Tour start in London in 2007.   

Despite a very good ride in the 2017 Giro's TT when injured, Geraint Thomas was not listed amongst the favourites. The TV cameras didn't follow his ride so there is only a brief clip of Thomas crossing the finish line with the new fastest time, which none of the later riders, including local favourite Tony Martin could beat.   

It was unfortunate that rain throughout the spoiled Düsseldorf's big day as well as making the TT more dangerous and difficult as Alejandro Valverde and Ion Izaguirre found to their cost crashing out on a corner around halfway through the course.  

Yesterday Team SKY were the big winners with Thomas and three other riders including Chris Froome (+ 12 seconds) in the top eight on the stage and so also on General Classification. Froome put seconds into all of his rivals for the overall win. Simon Yates is 25 seconds behind Froome, Richie Porte (35), Nairo Quintana (36) plus the big loss of Valverde, Thibaut Pinot (38), Romain Bardet (39), Fabio Aru (40), Alberto Contador (42) and Bauke Mollema (1.06).

Stage 2: Düsseldorf to Liège (203.5 kms)
Widely expected to be a sprinters stage with just two category 4 climbs. The first very early on and the second 20 kilometres from the finish. Much of the longish stage is pretty flat getting a little bumpy as Liège approaches but not enough to upset the top sprinters.
 

Unfortunately the forecast is for light rain. Furthermore, the first few stages of the Tour de France are always nervous with the risk of crashes. Hopefully there won't be any serious crashes today.



A new time and important measure at the finish has just been introduced - splits on the finish will be taken as three minutes instead of just one. This means that the general classification riders can now hang back a little bit leaving more space to the sprinters and their lead-out trains, so hopefully fewer crashes in the last kilometre of a stage. 

Favourites for the first stage are sprinters: André Greipel, Peter Sagan, Arnaud Démare, Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Nacer Bouhanni and Alexander Kristoff. 

I'm going to opt for either Griepel or Kittel. It will be interesting to see how Cavendish goes after his illness. Difficult to count out Cav, even if not fully fit, as he does have a very good sprint team including Bernard Eisel, Mark Renshaw and Edward Boassen Hagen.   

2016 Tour de France – Griepel wins sprint - Froome joins the greats

André Griepel won the sprint in Paris, so he finally got a stage win in the 2016 edition. This is now back to back victories in Paris as Griepel won here last year. He has now ridden six TDFs and won at least a stage in each edition. Griepel now has 11 TDF stage victories – two more than Marcel Kittel. This makes him the second most successful current sprinter in the TDF after Mark Cavendish and his 30 wins. Griepel is now 34, which underlines that sprinters can continue to win well into their 30s.
 

Peter Sagan come very close to taking the victory yesterday with a late surge but needed a few more metres. You have to wonder whether, if Sagan hadn't done all that work for Romain Kreuzinger on Saturday's final Alpine stage, he might have won this sprint. Just shows how phenomenally strong Sagan is!

Marcel Kittel, my pick for yesterday's winner, had mechanical problems and curiously without a team mate to pace him back into the pack spent too much energy in returning to have any left for the sprint. He finished in 61st position. Still I did pick Griepel for second spot.    

With just one stage win – Limoges – this will have been a disappointing TDF for Kittel having missed last year due to injury. This appears to suggest that Etixx-Quickstep might be a graveyard for successful sprinters. Cav won only three TDF stages in his three seasons with with Omega Pharma–Quick-Step (now Etixx-Quickstep). Still impressive, especially as he crashed out of the 2014 TDF on Stage 1, but way down on his previous results. Kittel won four stages in both 2013 and 2014, so just one in 2016 due to the Cav's renaissance will hurt. Still at 28 he has time on his side.

Many congratulations to Chris Froome on winning his third Tour de France and joining the greats, who have won three TDFs or more. He joins five times winners Jacques Anquetil Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain and Eddy Merckx plus Lucien Bobet, Greg Lemond and Philippe Thys, who also won three editions.   

Of the GC contenders Froome was clearly the most aggressive taking the most risks as demonstrated by his descent of the Peyresoudre to take Yellow. In Sky, of course, Froome had a superb and very focused team.  

Apart from a brief try on the Ventoux Nairo Quintana's challenge never materialised. The exciting young rider of 2013, who attacked in the Pyrénées and on the Ventoux, now appears to be a distant memory. Sky's strength appeared to intimidate the other contenders and only Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, Bauke Mollema, Alejandro Valverde and Adam Yates made attacks. Unfortunately Yates's attack off the Col d'Aspin was nullified by the collapsing Flamme Rouge banner. This was the stage that Steve Cummings took with a typically, fine solo ride. It was good to see Bardet's brave attack  on Stage 19 bring him second place on the podium. Will he be able to test Froome more fully in 2017?

Other Jerseys

Congratulations to Peter Sagan on winning the Green Jersey by a mile for the 5th time. He also took two stage victories. In his second TDF Adam Yates impressed winning the White Jersey as the best young rider, while Rafa Majka took the Polka Dot climbers' jersey for the second time. 

Cav's Renaissance 

It was great to see Mark Cavendish back to best winning four stages including Stage 1 so getting the Yellow Jersey for the first time. He now has an amazing 30 TDF stage wins only four behind that of the great Eddy Merckx. Although nothing is even given in the Tour it must now be possible that Cav at 31 years old can match or even eclipse Eddy's record. 

In 24 year-old Dan McLay we have a new promising sprinter. He was placed in the 10 top on three stages in this year's Tour.      

UK's progression since 2007 
The 2007 Tour de France started in London with the Prologue. It was the first Tour that a young sprinter called Mark Cavendish rode. After a couple of top 10 placings and two crashes, Mark pulled out on Stage 8. Although there was a growing interest in cycling and the Tour attracted good crowds, no British rider had come close to winning the Tour and Barry Hoban held the stage wins total with 8.   

Who would have thought that nine years on that Mark Cavendish would have racked up 30 TDF stage wins and have won the Green Jersey in 2011, that British riders would have won four of the last five Tours – 2012 (Bradley Wiggins), 2013, 2015 and 2016 (all Chris Froome), and that Adam Yates would be the first UK rider to win the White Jersey. Remarkable!   

2016 Tour de France – start of four crunch Alpine days

There are now just five stages left in the 2016 and only four will count in deciding the overall winner. If Chris Froome's rivals want to stop him winning his third Tour de France they will have to start attacking him unless he has a disastrous day in the Alps. To date the power of the Sky team has nullified and inhibited attacks. 

Yesterday Mark Cavendish left the Tour after winning four stages to prepare for the Olympics where he is riding in the Omnium with Bradley Wiggins, so the final Paris sprint will belong to someone else.  

Stage 17: Berne to Finhaut-Emosson 184.5 kms

 

With the stage finishing at the top of the steep hors category Finaut-Emosson this ought to provide Froome's rivals a chance to attack. Equally it may provide Chris an opportunity to put further time into the other GC contenders. Apart from a short descent from the Col de Forclaz the last 34 kilometres are uphill with some very steep sections on the climb up to Finaut-Emosson. 

It will be disappointing if there are no changes to the overall classification this evening.

2016 Tour de France: Amazing Cav wins again – tough stage today

Yesterday saw Mark Cavendish rack up his 4th win in this year's Tour taking his total to an amazing 30 Tour de France stage wins. Cav is only the second rider to reach 30. Now only the great Eddy Merckx is ahead by four stage wins. There remain two possible sprint stages left – Berne on Monday and Paris next Sunday.  

 

No change to the overall standings but that is likely to change after today's tough stage in the Juras.

Stage 15 Bourg-en-Bresse to Culoz 160 kms

This should be a tough ride through the Jura Mountains featuring the Grand Colombier (HC). Surely if Chris Froome's  rivals are going to start to threaten his lead they will need to start here. If not, Froome could well gain more time here today.

2016 Tour de France – 2nd week – still stalemate?

Stage 10 – Escaldes Engordany to Revel

Stage 10 – Escaldes Engordany to Revel – 197 kms

The Tour sets off again after the first rest day leaving the Pyrénées behind. With a sharp climb (Category 3) just before the finish, this may well rule out the pure sprinters. The Côte de Saint-Ferréol – 1.8 kms at an average of 6.6% – comes just seven kilometres before the finish. This is more likely to suit riders like Peter Sagan, who will be looking to wrest the Green Jersey off Mark Cavendish. It is also possible that some GC contenders will pluck up courage to attack Chris Froome on this climb.

 

2016 Tour de France: Mark Cavendish wins 29th – the Pyrénées loom

Another amazing win for Mark Cavendish in Montauban, the third of this year and his 29th Tour de France stage win – just a breathtaking achievement. Once again Mark won through a combination of his speed and tactical nous – knowing just where to be and whose wheels to follow – doing this in Montauban without his lead-out men. 

This latest win moves Mark into second place on the overall list of stage winners of the Tour de France – a list that starts with the first edition of this great race in 1903. Now on 29 wins, Cav moves one ahead of the great Bernard Hinault, the last Frenchman to win the Tour in 1985. He is now five stage wins away from matching the legendary Eddy Merckx. 

At the end of the 2015 Tour, when Cav won just one stage, it looked as though he might never threaten to catch Eddy Merckx's total. However, this year's work on the track for the Rio Olympics and moving to a new team – Dimension Data – has seen a return to Cav's old dominance taking three stage wins in the first week – a feat he has never managed before.   

Mark won his first Tour de France stage win in 2008 in Châteauroux and went on to win three more that year. 

The 29 stage wins: 2008 – 4, 2009 – 6, 2010 – 5, 2011 – 5, 2012 – 3, 2013 – 2, 2014 – crashed out 1st stage, 2015 – 1, 2016 – 3 to date.   

Mark now has a chance to equal or even surpass Merckx. But even winning a stage on the Tour is a remarkable achievement, so winning another five to reach Eddy's total of 34 will not be easy. This is underlined by looking at the riders who have five stage wins to their name including Chris Froome, Sean Kelly and Tony Martin.           

 

Greg Van Avermaet enjoyed a trouble-free day on his first day in the Yellow Jersey and there were no changes overall.  

Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdan – Luc de Payrolle 162.5k

Today is the first of three days in the Pyrénées and with only one major climb – Col d'Aspin – it should be the easiest. Saturday and Sunday's stages will surely be very tough. I fancy Greg Van Avermaet may still be in Yellow tonight but will lose a chunk of his over 5 minute lead. 

Will Moviestar attempt to soften up the other GC contenders on the approach and up the Col d'Aspin? What will the tactics of Sky be and how will the chances of France's promising clutch of young riders look after today's stage? Will Alberto Contador lose more time today. If he does lose time his chances of winning this Tour, already slim, will surely disappear. 

I expect some shake-up to the overall lead but anticipate that Saturday and Sunday's stages will be the ones that really show the handful of real contenders for victory this year. 

Until now all the 2016 stage winners – Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan, Marcel Kittel and Gre Van Avermaet – have all won stages on previous TDFs, will there be a first time stage winner today? 
 

2016 Tour de France: Great ride into Yellow – Greg Van Avermaet + sprinters' interlude

Yesterday's stage through the mountains of Cantal saw a great individual solo win by Greg Van Avermaet, who finished over five minutes ahead of the peloton to take over Yellow from Peter Sagan with a comfortable margin over Julian Alaphilippe, currently the best Young Rider. At one point Greg was just over 15 minutes on the peloton, who only really started racing once they hit the mountains with Moviestar setting a high tempo. It was only after the intermediate sprint at Mauriac that the sprinters, including Peter Sagan, started to get dropped. 

At the end most of the GC contenders finished together apart from Alberto Contador, who is still suffering from his crashes and lost further seconds to his rivals. He is now 1.27 down on second placed Alaphilippe.      

Arpajon-sur-Cère to Montauban (190.5k) 

Today's run to Montauban should end in a bunch sprint. This will be the last chance for the sprinters before the finish in Montpellier on 13th July as the Pyrenées now beckon. The finish in Montauban is dead flat so I fancy, unless there are crashes, it will be between Mark Cavendish, André Griepel and Marcel Kittel with an outside chance for Bryan Coquard. It would be good to see Cav get his 29th stage victory!

Greg Van Avermaet will surely hold onto Yellow at least until the end of Saturday's stage to Bagnères de Luchon, which includes the Tourmalet.   

2016 Tour de France – Cav wins in Angers catching Hinault + longest stage

 Mark Cavendish just beats André Griepel to win in Angers

Peter Sagan comfortably remains in Yellow 

Mark Cavendish beat André Griepel by the narrowest of margins on Angers' Boulevard Foch. It was down to a photo-finish to decide the result. As I predicted yesterday the uphill finish played its part with Griepel starting his effort a little too early very soon after he had turned the corner at the Mercure. Cav was expecting this and took Griepel's wheel. Mark and André finished comfortably ahead of Frenchman Bryan Coquard and Peter Sagan. Marcel Kittel didn't really feature in the sprint coming in 8th. 

This latest victory takes Mark Cavendish's Tour de France stage wins to an amazing 28. He is now equal with the great Bernard Hinault and six behind Eddy Merckx. He has a very good claim to be the greatest sprinter ever, even though he has not won as many stages in the three Grand Tours – France, Italy, Spain – as Mario Cipollini and Alessandro Petacchi. The Tour de France is the most important and most hotly contested of the three Tours. Mario had 12 TDF stage wins and Alessandro six. 

See list of all Tour de France stage winners here.

After his time at Etixx Quickstep, Mark Cavendish appears to be reinvigorated. Partly due to having some of his old team back together Bernie Eisel and Edvald Boasson Hagen along with Mark Renshaw, who came across with Mark from Etixx. Somehow things never really worked out at Etixx, whereas as now the old firm is being very effective, despite not being the largest or most powerful train in the race. Mark's track training for the Rio Olympics is another factor as is his delight in helping to raise money to provide bikes for African children through Qhubeka.  

•••

Stage 4: Saumur to Limoges – 237.5 kms

Today is the longest stage of this year's Tour. Will it be run as slowly as yesterday when the peloton appeared to be out for a gentle club run until they approached Angers. Today's stage has one category 4 climb towards the end of the stage but this should not be steep enough to drop the sprinters. It starts fairly flat but becomes more undulating as you approach Limoges. Apparently the uphill finish is a little steeper than yesterday. Likely winners – André Griepel, Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish.  

 

Saumur to Limoges: 237.5 K

2016 Tour de France: Peter Sagan in Yellow – uphill sprint today in Angers

 

Yesterday's results

Although I picked Alejandro Valverde to win yesterday's tricky finish in Cherbourg, my option on Peter Sagan paid dividends as the world champion both won the stage and took over the Yellow Jersey from Mark Cavendish. Like Mark, this is the first time Sagan has worn the jersey. Given that the next two stages to come are flat, Sagan may well remain in Yellow at least until the end of Stage 5 at Le Lioran. The young French rider Julian Alaphilippe came close to winning the stage but Sagan proved to be too strong. 

Good to see two of the great stars of today – Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan – getting the Yellow Jersey for the first time. Sagan's 5th stage victory and remarkably his first since 5th July 2013 in Albi brings him up level on #TDF stage wins with Chris Froome, Sean Kelly, Hennie Kuiper, Tony Martin, Vincenzo Nibali, Herman van Springel and Jean Stablinski among others.      

Among the favourites both Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are on the same time – 14" seconds down on Peter Sagan. However, two of their rivals – Alberto Contador and Richie Porte – have lost time. Contador, who crashed on both Saturday and Sunday, is 1.02 down on Sagan. He was dropped on the 3rd category climb in the final kilometres. Richie Porte was unlucky to have a puncture around 5 kilometres before the finish and is now 1.59 down. The biggest question mark is over Contador – how will he cope with Stage 5 that visits the mountains of Cantal? Will he have recovered sufficiently in time?   

      

Stage 3: Granville to Angers

At 223.5 kilometres this is the second longest stage of this year's Tour – tomorrow is the longest – 237.5. Apart from a fourth category climb close to the start this stage is pretty flat especially in the latter stages – initially it is quite undulating. Jasper Stuyven, with 4 points, will keep his Polka Dot jersey as best climber. 

The finish in Angers is on the Boulevard Foch by the town hall and a bunch sprint is very likely after the break of the day is caught. Unlike Saturday's finish, the final 600/700 metres of the stage is steadily uphill, although not steep but rises up some 80 feet.

The riders come over the Maine. The road is briefly flat as they go under the One K to go banner. Then the Boulevard Carnot starts to rise up. At the Hotel Mercure the riders turn right into the Boulevard Foch for some 250 metres before crossing the finish line with the road continuing to rise.  

This uphill finish may well suit both André Griepel and Marcel Kittel plus Yellow Jersey wearer Peter Sagan. The trick may be to delay one's sprint until close to the line as if you start too early there is a good chance you will run out of gas. Mark Cavendish should also have a good chance if he can follow wheels until just before the line. 

   

2016 Tour de France: Stage 2 – Saint-Lô to Cherbourg

Today will surely be a day to remember for Mark Cavendish – his first Tour stage while wearing the Yellow Jersey. However, it will be very tough for him to hold onto Yellow today with a short, tough uphill finish.

Given his huge respect for the Tour and its history and traditions, Mark will do his very best to honour Yellow fighting to hold onto it. However, the final run-in features the 3rd category Côte de la Glacière with sections up to 14%. 

This tough finale is likely to rule out not just Cav but also Marcel Kittel and André Griepel. Instead it should suit riders, who shine in the Ardennes classics, particularly Liège-Bastogne-Liège. This means riders like Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde, Greg Van Avermaet and Joaquim Rodríguez. It will also surely suit World Champion Peter Sagan. Also the GC contenders will want to be there, so as not to lose time on their rivals. Last year Chris Froome was very impressive on the Mur de Huy – the finish climb of Liège-Bastogne-Liège. 

Unfortunately the finish may give an indication of how well Alberto Contador is recovering from yesterday's crash.

However, I'm going for the experienced and wily Valverde with Sagan as a second option.            

Mark Cavendish in Yellow for this stage    

2016 Tour de France: Mark Cavendish wins 1st Stage – takes Yellow + 27th stage win

It was wonderful to be proved wrong! Just hours after playing down Mark's chances of stage victory and tipping Marcel Kittel to take the stage win, Mark proves what a great sprinter he is. 

After the anguish of crashing out of the 2014 Tour in Harrogate in the sprint at the end of Stage 1 and last year's disappointments when Mark took just one stage eclipsed by André Griepel in the absence of Kittel, who had limited Cav to just two stage wins in the 2013. It was tempting to think that Mark's best days were past and that Eddy's record 34 stage wins was safe even beginning to wonder whether Bernard Hainault's 28 wins would be matched. 

Today Mark was back to his best showing why he has such a strong claim to be the greatest sprinter ever. Moving to a new team – Dimension Data – after his rather unfulfilled stay at Omega-Pharma-Quick Step, now Etixx-Quick Step with Kittel as their star sprinter, has certainly hit the jackpot today. 

It looks like Mark moving with Mark Renshaw to Dimension Data and reuniting with Bernie Eisel, who was an essential part of the very successful HTC Columbia/Highroad lead out team, has been a masterful move. 

Mark is not just about speed – using his characteristic crouched style – but very importantly he has brilliant positioning and the ability to read a fast changing bunch sprint and react instantly. 

Today's win show that. Well into the final kilometre Mark is ticked in behind Renshaw, he checks a couple of times to his right to see if anyone is coming up on the barriers. Then World Champion Peter Sagan flies past and looks to be about to win the stage. Mark accelerates rapidly to get on Sagan's wheel, then as the line approaches moves out, goes for the line and wins comfortably from Marcel Kittel, who had started his sprint well before Mark did. Sagan takes third and André Griepel fourth. The overhead shots show just how emphatic Mark's victory was: Kittel was more than a bike length behind. This is a huge margin in such a flat out sprint.  

Kittel (1.88 m) and Griepel (1.84 m), who are much bigger than Mark (1.75 m), have the power but Cav has the finesse and the speed. 

Almost as impressive as Mark's win was his interview immediately after his win – citing his team, the Qhubeka charity aiming to get 5000 African kids on bikes and those who lost their lives not only on Utah Beach, where the stage finished, but all of those who fought for our freedom. Mark made UK politicians look like pygmies!

Mark's win today is also a reminder that sprinters are able to remain at the very top considerably longer than other cyclists. André Griepel is now 33, Cav 31, while Marcel Kittel is a relative youngster at 28. Mark has plenty more years ahead of him to equal or overtake Eddy's record. 

   

2016 Tour de France starts tomorrow – Nairo Quintana's turn to win?

The world's greatest sporting event – The 2016 Tour de France  – starts tomorrow at Mont Saint Michel. Three weeks later it finishes in Paris. Will Chris Froome win for the third time – previous victories in 2013 and 2015? Or will Nairo Quintana win for the first time. Or might Alberto Contador move back to three Tour de France victories having lost his third win – 2010 – because of a positive dope test. 

Quintana has shown himself to be very strong in the third week of previous editions of the Tour, so I'm I think he may well win this year with Froome second.   

Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel Utah Beach

The opening stage from Mont Saint Michel to Utah Beach (188 kms) is flat. It will surely be won by a sprinter, although cross winds as the bunch moves up the Normandy Coast could well cause splits in the peloton. Whoever wins the stage will take the Yellow Jersey. It would be great to see Mark Cavendish win as he has never worn the Yellow Jersey, while he has worn the leader's jersey for both the Giro and the Vuelta. However, I think Marcel Kittel has the best chance followed by André Griepel.  

Let the excitement begin!         

#TDF2015: winning Pinot on L'Alpe d'Huez, Froome wins Tour + Cav or Griepel today?

 Stage 20: the top 23 headed by Thibaut Pinot

Stage 20: Chris Froome wins 2015 Tour – the top 23 overall
Nairo Quintana 2nd, Alejandro Valverde 3rd

Yesterday was an exciting stage with Chris Froome really pushed by Nairo Quintana. Apparently Froome has been suffering from a chesty cold since the rest day in Gap, so the climb up to L'Alpe d'Huez trying to limit his time loss to Quintana was really hard. With a great attack Quintana managed to reduce his deficit to Froome to 1.12. He couldn't, however, prevent Chris Froome from winning the Tour for a second time as today's stage will be a procession into Paris with only the sprinters involved in a final gallop up the Avenue des Champs-Elysées. 

Thibaut Pinot rescued his Tour with a fine stage win on top of L'Alpe d'Huez to make up for his disappointing showing earlier on in the Tour. Vincenzo Nibali was very unlucky to get a puncture at the base of the climb up the Alpe, which meant that his chance to get on the podium in Paris disappeared.  

The other jersey competitions have also now been decided: 

Mountains – Polka Dot: Chris Froome 

There is one point available on Stage 21 into Paris but this will change nothing as Chris Froome leads Nairo Quintana by 11 points.   

Points – Green: Peter Sagan 

Peter Sagan has again dominated the Points Competition, especially in the latter stages of the race. He leads André Griepel by over 100 points and cannot be caught even if he scores no points today. 

Young Rider: Nairo Quintana 

Nairo Quintana has a comfortable lead of 14.48 over Romain Bardet, the leading French rider. Although overall the French riders have not finished as high up the General Classification as they did last year, there is hope for the future with three French riders in the top four of this competition albeit that Warren Barguil and Thibaut Pinot are over 37 minutes down on Quintana.  

 

Stage 21: Sèvres-Gpso to Paris Champs-Élysées 109.5 kms

   

Today's stage will be a procession until the peloton reaches the Champs-Élysées when the sprinters will come out to play. The question will be how much did the mountains take out of them?

Although both André Griepel and Mark Cavendish both have weakened lead out teams, I still expect it will be between these two for the victory. Although Cav has lost Mark Renshaw, his lead out man, Mark is adept at going freestyle and knows the finish well having won here four times. Furthermore he has won here before without Renshaw. Peter Sagan will be up there but it would be a major surprise if he manages to win in Paris.