The most famous lie of the Leave campaign
Ever since the narrow result just over a year ago to leave the EU of
our ‘advisory’ referendum held on 23rd June 2016 being a U.K. citizen who voted
to remain it has been like living through a never-ending nightmare.
Initially it was shock that after more than 40
years in the EU we should have voted to come out in a referendum foolishly held
by David Cameron. Foolish that it was held at all but even more foolish that it
was held on the basis of a simple majority.
Gradually the implications of leaving the EU
have become clearer to more and more people. At the same time the lies and
false promises of the leave campaign have been exposed.
Unfortunately on becoming Prime Minister Theresa
May, nominally a remainder, opted for a ‘hard brexit’ or even no deal. She
appointed three leavers - Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox - to key
positions in her Government. Over the past year it has become clear that none
of them are properly suited or equipped for their roles.
Fortunately May’s gamble of holding a snap
election to increase her majority backfired badly even though she got the most
votes and has the most seats in the House of Commons. Instead of a narrow
majority, May ended up with a hung parliament far from the thumping majority
she had hoped for when she sprung the election.
The extended campaign exposed May as robotic,
without empathy and keen to avoid contact with the electorate while demanding a
big majority to carry out her hard Brexit or no deal. Her refusal to take part
in the broadcast debates being the most obvious example.
At the same time the election campaign engergised
Jeremy Corbyn allowing him as an experienced campaigner to connect with the
youth vote. This was combined with a big vote registration drive. He attracted
enormous and enthusiastic crowds in many parts of the country.
May's government has run out of luck – events have started to show her government in a very unflattering light. As Harold Macmillan is quoted 'Events, dear boy, events' on what blows a government off-course.
The awful terrorist attacks in Manchester and
London in the latter part of the campaign put the spotlight on Government cuts
to the emergency services. 20,000 fewer police officers since 2012 involving
the drastic shrinking of neighbourhood policing that brings in crucial local
intelligence.
May’s arrogant and condescending speech to the
Police Federation in 2015 when she scolded her audience for ‘scare
mongering’ was widely tweeted and rightly came back to bite her.
The election result left May severely weakened
and increasingly a figure of derision. Her pathetic reaction to the terrible
fire in the Grenfell Tower coupled with evidence that Ministers had ignored
recommendations from previous reports into tower block fire tragedies. It also
highlighted the culture of cutting corners which incredibly allowed Grenfell to
be clad with flammable material.
The now long-running negotiation with DUP
illustrates May’s poor negotiating skills just at the time when we are supposed
to be negotiating the very complex process of leaving the EU.
There is a sense that the tide is turning with
more people being persuaded that the best option is to remain within the EU. If
a so called soft Brexit means staying within the customs union and the single
market along with acceptance of freedom of movement within the EU, then
why on earth are we leaving? Staying in gives us a better deal as well as being
involved in discussions.
As inflation moves up, people’s wages decline,
the NHS faces an increasing shortage of nurses, farmers wake up to the implications
of not finding enough EU workers to work on the land and bringing in the crops,
and holiday makers find that sterling buys considerably less than it did when
they go abroad the idea of leaving will surely increasingly look stupid and
damaging. Not forgetting the UK becoming less attractive to investors and
starting to lose EU agencies based in London with Euro passporting rights
moving away to mainland Europe.
MPs know that the electorate will punish parties
that make them poorer. If opinion really
does swing away from leaver, MPs who know that Brexit is insanity will one
hopes start to speak up, especially as there appears to be no positive
arguments for leaving. Will there be cross-party alliances.
Unfortunately the Labour position on Brexit
makes no more sense than the Conservative position. Corbyn’s call of Brexit for
the many is just as vacuous as May’s now infamous ‘Brexit means Brexit’. If
Corbyn wants to safeguard jobs and people’s living standards then the obvious
course is to reverse course and stay in. Furthermore the majority of his
supporters aged from 45 and below want to stay in the EU.
As long as May remains Prime Minister she
appears to be determined to pursue her hard Brexit but what if she is
overthrown or is forced to resign. Let’s say that Philip Hammond takes over.
Since the election Hammond has already made it clear, in contrast to May that
the emphasis has to be on economics rather than immigration.
What, if once in No 10, Hammond decided that the
Brexit farce had run its course and that we couldn’t afford to waste anymore
time and resources on negotiating a worse deal than we already have. What if he
revoked Article 50 and kept us in the EU. This would completely wrong foot
Labour and presumably diminish Corbyn’s current popularity with younger voter.
May's shoddy deal today with the DUP could prop up her government for a while at huge cost – a bribe of at least a £1 billion. Who will take comments that there is no 'money tree' seriously now. Clear that there is no money tree for essential services – nurses, fire and police officers – but there is plenty to enable her discredited government to limp on. This deal threatens peace in Northern Ireland and will surely not be popular in Scotland, Wales and Northern England who will want their slice of this generous and magical cake.
Furthermore if
the Conservatives are propped up by the DUP this is unlikely to increase their
popularity with much of the electorate. Vote Conservative and get the DUP will be a powerful slogan in elections to come.
Given what has happened over the past year -
Brexit and the election of Trump and Macron - i’m loathe to try to predict what
the next few months will bring but it is just possible that we could be nearing
the end of the UK’s nightmare.