2013 Tour de France: Mark Cavendish is yellow tonight? But 1st stage a lottery?

Sky@Evans, Waterloo

Just a few hours now before the 2013 Tour de France starts in Corsica. Will Mark Cavendish be in Yellow tonight? It would be great if he does win in Bastia but the first stage, although flat, could well be turn to be a lottery with some fairly narrow roads with some street furniture, especially at the entries and exits to villages. Unfortunately there are likely to be crashes in the first stage. Hopefully no-one will be badly injured but riders could easily be held up by crashes in any narrow sections, so a bunch sprint in Bastia with all the sprinters present may not happen. It is certain that there will be a lot of pressure to be close to the front of the peloton. Fortunately a lot of the road for the stage is broad and open. There are also a strong line up of other sprinters here this year, although interesting Tyler Farrar didn't make the Garmin team.

If Cav doesn't get the first stage there are plenty of other stages that look set up for the sprinters and it will be a real surprise if Mark doesn't win at least four or five stages this year. Equally it will be a surprise if Peter Sagan doesn't build on his impressive début last year, especially in the lumpier stages. If Cav does win five or more stages plus a good haul of intermediate sprint points then I think he will win the Green Jersey, if not then Sagan will win it for the second year in succession.