2011 Tour de France: Stage 10: Aurillac to Carmaux

Today it is a short (158 kilometres) but lumpy stage in Cantal and the Aveyron from Aurillac to Carmaux. There are three classified climbs – two 3rd category and two 4th – so no major difficulties but another day when it is up and down with very little on the flat. The forecast is a hotter than for the last two stages – 28-30˚C so warm but not scorching.

It will be a big surprise if Thomas Voeckler loses his Yellow Jersey today. Only a crash is likely to make it happen. I expect him to hold on to Yellow at least until Thursday (Bastille Day) when the race enters the Pyrénées. Although Voeckler may not lose it on the first day there I will be very surprised if he manages to hang on right through the Pyrénées.

Despite the lumpy course today's stage might end up as a sprint and if it does Mark Cavendish will have a good chance to notch up stage win number 18. The sprinters will be keen to hold the race together as there are not many opportunities for a bunch finish remaining in this year's Tour. The shortness of the stage may make it difficult to control any breakaway.

I expect Philippe Gilbert to to gain further points today, although his lead over Cavendish may be less at the end of today.